Thursday, June 22, 2006

Probabilities

Sam slept pretty late this morning. He had been waking up at 6:30 for the last few weeks, regardless of how late we put him to bed, which can start to get a bit trying after a while.

It's funny, because they reach a point where you've dispensed of the monitor long ago. So you have his door closed, and no idea what is going on behind there. And you don't dare open the door, because that will wake him up immediately. So your mind starts to wander and consider probabilities:

Chance he bumped his head during the night and is lying there unconscious: 1 in 7 million
Chance he woke up and wandered into traffic: 1 in 96 million
Chance he choked on a Lego: 1 in 135 million
SIDS: 1 in 22 million
Chance a re-animated Bruno Richard Hauptmann climbed a ladder to his window: 1 in 49 trillion

These things seem individually remote, but if you think of enough scenarios and add them up pretty soon you start to wonder. This is where not being paranoid and understanding probability is a parental virtue, and you are rewarded for this skill with a few extra hours of sleep.

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